梅姨提前大选胜券在握?可英镑涨幅让人民币玩家心塞

英伦圈 2017-04-19 20:51:24
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英国这边今天早上10点,还在努力消化早餐中的圈哥突然收到一条新闻推送:首相特雷莎·梅11:15将在唐宁街10号门前发表“突然声明”(surprise statement)


(图片来自天空新闻客户端推送)


熟悉英国政府套路的小伙伴们可能知道,一般来讲首相的重要讲话都会提前做好准备,如果是在周一周二这样的时间举行,那么通常周末英媒就已经开始“泄露”部分讲话重点。


像这样“搞突袭”的本来就少见,更别提现在英国也没啥突发大事……所以梅姨你要讲话前一个小时才放出口风,是要闹哪样?



不管怎样,英媒一下子打了鸡血,集体冲向唐宁街,瞬间挤成这样▼


(图片来自天空新闻记者Beth Ridby个人推特)


网上也开始出现各种各样“梅姨到底要干什么”的猜测,主要包括以下几类:


  • 宣布提前进行英国大选(general election);

  • 以身体健康状况不佳为由,宣布辞职

  • 宣布苏格兰第二次独立公投相关事宜;

  • 宣布北爱尔兰独立公投相关事宜(这条也是有点扯,人家自己政府什么话都还没说呢……)

  • 跟西班牙开战(EXO ME?)


不过还是有柯南附体的现场记者表示,此时还孤零零的讲话台前侧空空如也,并没有唐宁街10号的logo,意味着声明内容应该不是代表整个英国政府,梅姨会以保守党党魁的身份进行此次讲话。


(图片来自天空新闻编辑Tom Boadle个人推特)


对比一下之前的讲话台▼


(图片来自地铁报)


离预定讲话时间还有10分钟的时候,唐宁街10号和梅姨终于还是没忍住,放出憋了整个复活节的大招:宣布要求6月8日提前进行英国大选


(图片来自天空新闻)


感觉天空新闻图文直播的这位小编在发出“走你”(here we go)这句话的时候,白眼已经翻上了天……



可是等等,之前梅姨和英政府不是已经把提前大选的可能否认了无数遍么?去年11月,即使在最高法院裁定脱欧必须经过议会投票的逆境之下,梅姨也强硬宣布坐稳“宝座”直到2020年的决心。今年3月20日触发第50条前一周多,她也再次强调了这个态度,现在却……???


(图片截取自卫报YouTube视频)



提前大选,梅姨胜券在握吗?



其实梅姨的这项声明,从技术层面上讲并不代表提前大选已经板上钉钉。根据英国先行法律,她必须获得整个下议院至少三分之二议员的投票支持,才能让提前大选成为现实。这项投票明天就会进行,所以难怪选择在复活节刚过完的这个周二匆忙宣布:就等赶巧么不是!


(图片来自Twitter)


至于为何画风突变要求大选提前,梅姨表示是因为“全国上下已经团结起来,政府却没有做到这一点”。她认为提前大选能够为英国带来“更多的确定性和安全性”,并且相信通过这样做能够组建一个“强大稳定的领导班子”。


Wi-Fi党或者流量无限的小伙伴们可以戳视频听听梅姨讲话都说了啥,文章结尾也有她今天讲话的英语全文~



翻译成老百姓能听明白的话呢,就是说保守党觉得现在提前大选,能够在议会各党派中仅占微弱优势的现状上加把力,获得更多席位!而根据三大民意调查网站的数据显示,选择此时出击确实是个百年难得一遇的好机会(Con代表保守党,Lab代表工党)▼


(图片来自Twitter)


BBC更是综合以上三大网站民调统计称,保守党目前支持率为43%,超过第二名的工党整整18个百分点。当然其他党派的支持率就完全没法一争了……


(图片来自BBC News)


有趣的是,各党派竟然都已经明确表示了对于提前大选的欢迎态度,不过显然都把这看做自己党派“翻身”的机会。


自由民主党党魁蒂姆·法伦(Tim Farron)表示:“这次选举是你能改变这个国家方向的机会。”意思就是,不想硬脱欧的人民快站起来把保守党赶下台……


绿党联合领导人卡洛琳·卢卡斯(Caroline Lucas)也表示对此欢迎,并且称绿党将为“一个不同的英国带来大胆、积极的未来”。


最后一个表态的是保守党最大对手工党的党魁科尔宾(Jeremy Corbyn),他也宣布工党将在明天投票中支持提前大选的动议,自己党派已经做好了准备“把大多数人民的利益放到首位”。


所以眼看各家都已经摩拳擦掌,不用明天下议院投票都可以99.99%肯定:提前大选是已成定局了啊


从左至右依次为法伦、科尔宾、卢卡斯。(图片来自独立报)


不过也有对梅姨这项决定表示不满的。天空新闻记者采访了几名不愿具名的“资深保守党议员”,他们都对提前大选表示“担心”,认为自由民主党和工党都能在选举中对保守党造成不小的威胁


而自从宣布请求苏格兰第二次独立公投后一直跟英政府正面怼的苏格兰第一大臣斯特金(Nicola Sturgeon)更是第一时间公开炮轰特雷莎·梅“再一次把党派利益放到了国家利益之前”,认为她是在趁着工党内部混乱而“投机”。


不过斯特金这番论调也并非为怼而怼,因为提前大选意味着接下来内阁将被解散,在大选结束、再次组阁之前,任何与脱欧相关的工作都会处于停摆状态……


斯特金还表示特雷莎·梅想要利用大选来“捂住那些跟她意见相左的人的嘴”。(图片来自Twitter)


无论如何,今天梅姨的突袭至少还是给英国人带来了一项好消息:英镑涨回来了!早上她声明前40分钟时,英镑还一度下跌,短短半个小时兑美元汇率下降0.3%,兑欧元汇率下降0.4%……英国人一片心塞,圈哥也差一点以为人民币玩家自带折扣的时代又要再度降临了……


(图片来自Twitter)


声明宣读完毕、各党领导人纷纷表态后,英镑兑美元汇率已经快速飙升至今年一月以来的最高水平!而且截至发稿前,涨势仍未见疲软,截稿前英镑兑人民币汇率更是涨到了8.84!要知道这汇率已经连着好几周停留在8.6上下了!代表人民币玩家心塞0.1秒……


(图片来自天空新闻经济板块编辑Ed Conway个人推特)


天空新闻编辑在推上吐槽说,这已经是英国连续4年全民大型投票了!2014年第一次苏格兰独立公投,2015年正常大选,2016年脱欧公投,今年又要再来一次……


做英国人好累,都已经开始在推特上羡慕起天塌下来都该吃吃该睡睡的唐宁街10号官方喵星人Larry了……


(图片来自Twitter)


关于提前大选,你应该知道什么?


什么是意外提前大选(Snap General Election)?

在没有法律要求的条件下,提前于预期时间的英国最高立法机构英国国会议员的选举,通常指下议院议员选举。上一次英国大选是2015年,一般5年一届,下一次大选按原计划应该是2020年,但在任首相有权调整大选时间。



提前大选将于什么时候举行?

2017年6月8日,周四


特雷莎·梅如何启动提前大选?

首相特雷莎将于4月19日(周三)在下议院进行提前大选的投票,根据2011年的固定期限议会法规定,有两种情况能进行提前选举已议案:

  1. 有至少三分之二的下议员议员投票同意提前选举议案;

  2. 如果不信任动议(Motion of No Confidence ,一般由发对党提出)获得通过,在没有替代政府的情况下,下议院需在14天内作出决定。特蕾莎梅的情况是属于前者。


工党是否有权阻止本次提前大选?

从理论上来讲,工党可以阻止。但从目前反应来看,工党党魁科尔宾已经宣布将支持提前大选。如果他不支持,其实也会被指责害怕进行选举,这是来自工党内部的压力。


(图片来自BBC News)


特雷莎·梅为何现在提出提前大选?

特蕾莎梅在讲话中强调,她希望在脱欧谈判中能有最大可能的指挥权。她还警告,一些国会议员和贵族勋爵试图阻止英国退出欧盟。如果能够赢得大选,能让她推动脱欧进程中获得更多主导权。此外,保守党在本次大选也可能会获得更多的席位。


英国历史上是否进行过提前大选?

1974年,时任英国首相爱德华·希斯(Edward Health)曾要求进行提前大选,试图在压制当时的英国矿工大罢工中获得更高的主导权,那次提前大选的结果是无任何党派获得明显多数议会席位。


如果特蕾莎·梅不进行提前大选会怎样?

2007年6月27日,英国时任首相托尼·布莱尔辞职,由当时身为财政大臣戈登·布朗接任。接任后布朗由于没有提出提前大选,而被指控推脱责任。


(图片截取自卫报YouTube视频)


特雷莎·梅讲话英语全文


讲真不管梅姨给人留下的印象是怎样,她的演讲水平绝对是过硬的,每次都可以当教科书一样来听……


下面就是她今天上午宣布提前大选的讲话英语全文,配合前面视频食用效果更佳哦!


I have just chaired a meeting of the Cabinet, where we agreed that the Government should call a general election, to be held on June 8.


I want to explain the reasons for that decision, what will happen next and the choice facing the British people when you come to vote in this election.


Last summer, after the country voted to leave the European Union, Britain needed certainty, stability and strong leadership, and since I became Prime Minister the Government has delivered precisely that.


Despite predictions of immediate financial and economic danger, since the referendum we have seen consumer confidence remain high, record numbers of jobs, and economic growth that has exceeded all expectations.


We have also delivered on the mandate that we were handed by the referendum result.


Britain is leaving the European Union and there can be no turning back. And as we look to the future, the Government has the right plan for negotiating our new relationship with Europe.


We want a deep and special partnership between a strong and successful European Union and a United Kingdom that is free to chart its own way in the world.


That means we will regain control of our own money, our own laws and our own borders and we will be free to strike trade deals with old friends and new partners all around the world.


This is the right approach, and it is in the national interest. But the other political parties oppose it.


At this moment of enormous national significance there should be unity here in Westminster, but instead there is division.


The country is coming together, but Westminster is not.


In recent weeks Labour has threatened to vote against the deal we reach with the European Union.


The Liberal Democrats have said they want to grind the business of government to a standsill.


The Scottish National Party say they will vote against the legislation that formally repeals Britain's membership of the European Union.


And unelected members of the House of Lords have vowed to fight us every step of the way.


Our opponents believe that because the Government's majority is so small, our resolve will weaken and that they can force us to change course.


They are wrong.


They under-estimate our determination to get the job done and I am not prepared to let them endanger the security of millions of working people across the country.


Because what they are doing jeopardises the work we must do to prepare for Brexit at home and it weakens the Government's negotiating position in Europe.


If we do not hold a general election now their political game-playing will continue, and the negotiations with the European Union will reach their most difficult stage in the run-up to the next scheduled election.


Division in Westminster will risk our ability to make a success of Brexit and it will cause damaging uncertainty and instability to the country.


So we need a general election and we need one now, because we have at this moment a one-off chance to get this done while the European Union agrees its negotiating position and before the detailed talks begin.


I have only recently and reluctantly come to this conclusion.


Since I became Prime Minister I have said that there should be no election until 2020, but now I have concluded that the only way to guarantee certainty and stability for the years ahead is to hold this election and seek your support for the decisions I must take.


And so tomorrow I will move a motion in the House of Commons calling for a general election to be held on the eighth of June.


That motion, as set out by the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, will require a two-thirds majority of the House of Commons.


So I have a simple challenge to the opposition parties, you have criticised the Government's vision for Brexit, you have challenged our objectives, you have threatened to block the legislation we put before Parliament.


This is your moment to show you mean it, to show you are not opposing the Government for the sake of it, to show that you do not treat politics as a game.


Let us tomorrow vote for an election, let us put forward our plans for Brexit and our alternative programmes for government and then let the people decide.


And the decision facing the country will be all about leadership. It will be a choice between strong and stable leadership in the national interest, with me as your Prime Minister, or weak and unstable coalition government, led by Jeremy Corbyn, propped up by the Liberal Democrats - who want to reopen the divisions of the referendum - and Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP.


Every vote for the Conservatives will make it harder for opposition politicians who want to stop me from getting the job done.


Every vote for the Conservatives will make me stronger when I negotiate for Britain with the prime ministers, presidents and chancellors of the European Union.


Every vote for the Conservatives means we can stick to our plan for a stronger Britain and take the right long-term decisions for a more secure future.


It was with reluctance that I decided the country needs this election, but it is with strong conviction that I say it is necessary to secure the strong and stable leadership the country needs to see us through Brexit and beyond.


So, tomorrow, let the House of Commons vote for an election, let everybody put forward their proposals for Brexit and their programmes for Government, and let us remove the risk of uncertainty and instability and continue to give the country the strong and stable leadership it demands."


(英伦圈综编,编辑:Moo & 清源,内容参考天空新闻、卫报、旗帜晚报、Twitter等,图片除标注外均来自网络,转载请注明。)


(文章转自英伦圈)

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